Since the paper focuses its attention on general formulations for site location, it does not adopt alternative methods for the computation of criterion weights, as they are considered as mathematical parameters from the optimization point of view. Sustainable Development: Concepts and Methods for Its Application 9 The Integer Programming IP method for Multiple-Criteria Site Location develops linear programming formulation for acquiring optimal sites composed by a set of pixels forming a compact and contiguous site: this result is obtained maximizing its performance according to one or more weighted Normalized Criteria NC.
Then, an alternative solution is devised in order to locate feasible near to optimal sites that fulfill multiple criteria requirements: this method is a Heuristic Multiple-Criteria solution for Site Location HMSL , which is divided in 3 stages: seeds generation, region growing and region ranking. The final goal of the entire algorithm is to construct a compact site maximizing the intrinsic multiple criteria suitability of the cells.
To validate the heuristic approach, a comparison with a mathematical formulation is performed with afforestation data of reduced areas within The Netherlands, Denmark, and Flanders, but the authors believe that the proposed approaches for site location can be applied on grids of cells with attribute data generated by any other application field.
This experimentation reveals that heuristic method is considerably faster than the mathematical one, that objective values obtained with the two approaches are substantially similar and that the heuristic solutions are also spatially nearer to the optimal patch location. Whereas the HMSL has a higher performance, each whole territory is processed with this method and a sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine its behavior for different parameter values.
The research carried out by Lombardo and Petri implements a methodology able to evaluate both the opportunity to use wind energy and, in the affirmative case, the producibility productivity? An evaluation framework is developed, which can be used both for wind energy and for other renewable energy sources exploitation. As systematic planning and programming for renewable energy plants siting are still at embryonic stage, the present role of local authorities is not to develop new strategies, but it is mainly limited to the approval or the denial of private proposals.
However, in Italy, none of the current procedures, norms or laws attempts to put into relation the different aspects involved in the exploitation of renewable energy sources and their environmental and visual impact, so that a reliable assessment is not possible even not required and rational planning of installation locations is quite impossible.
The general objective of the proposed research is to develop methods and techniques aimed to produce systematic and integrated knowledge on the possibility of production and sustainable use of renewable energy sources. The conceived methodology is composed of two parts: the first concerns the analysis at the wide scale of the area probably affected by the wind blade impacts and the second part implements local impact assessment of each possible wind farm locations.
Lapucci The entire methodology and its application on an Italian case study S. Luce, Livorno is an attempt to elaborate a procedural framework to evaluate the landscape impact of every new type of territorial element wind farms, dumps, incinerators, etc. So, landscape quality measure an element clearly difficult to schematize and its assessment are included into a process that starts from the impacted area characterization and ends with local impacts mitigation. The paper by Danese et al. More particularly, visual impact assessment has been enriched with a new type of viewshed analysis. Single, multiple and cumulative viewshed do not collect information concerning visibility of single objects distinguished in an evident way from the others.
The Identifying Viewshed Danese et al implemented in GRASS environment overcomes this limits allowing more accurate analyses and producing more detailed assessments. The paper by Mauro tackles an issue related to sustainable development, particularly from the point of view of the safeguard and recovery of terraced landscape. In light of the pursuit for a sustainable development, the main aim of this study is to identify the recent evolution of terraced areas, representing the first step to plan their recovery.
Actions taken to identify areas and to monitor changes are carried on using GIS analytical functions and an application to the province of Trieste North-eastern Italy is presented. The research brought to the realization of different maps related to different timescales. In particular, four rural land-cover classes were realized, these being derived from MOLAND geographical database, realized for urban areas at European level and extended to the overall regional territory in Friuli Venezia Giulia Region.
The combination of such intermediate maps, as rural maps with slopes for each considered year — were used to estimate past or current presence of terraced landscapes. The contribution of Novack et al. As the traditional approaches to estimate population density are mainly based on field surveys, they become, specially for big cities, laborintensive, time-consuming, costly and difficult to update: in this context the combination of high resolution remote sensing data and spatial regression techniques represents a very powerful tool.
To this end the authors devised and implemented a new methodology structured through several consequential steps. First of all, the QuickBird image is classified by the Maximum-Likelihood method and all independent variables are generated by FragStats software over this satellite image. Independent variables considered on each census sector are only four: number of polygons classified as ceramics roofs, percentage of class with dark roof, aggregation index of the streets class and the patch density of the vegetation class.
As some of the selected variables could well explain population density, two ordinary linear regression models called M1 and M2 are selected Sustainable Development: Concepts and Methods for Its Application 11 and formal statistical tests are applied. For the analysis of the spatial dependency of residuals, a distance-based neighborhood matrix is created: for spatial dependency detection Global Moran index is used, nevertheless the strongest evidence on the existence of spatial dependency of residuals for both models is the visual inspection of LISA maps.
The next step is to test which spatial regression model would be the most suitable for each model and to this aim Lagrange Multiplier test statistics are used. Finally, the running of spatial regression models is conducted as well as the inclusion of dummy variables in order to compare them in terms of spatial dependency elimination. Results of this experimentation prove that population density can be relatively well estimated by the use of spatial metrics calculated over a classified high resolution image when using the population density itself as independent variable in spatial regression models.
The concept of spatial autocorrelation has been applied using different techniques in the paper by Lucia et al.. The integration of chemical and physical parameters and geostatistical techniques has found many applications in recent years that have allowed the estimation of background values for contaminants in the investigated matrices. More particularly this paper investigates the distribution of some heavy metals on the geochemical characterization of the polluted site of national interest Tito PZ through the application of geostatistical techniques.
All geostatistical analysis were carried out using the "geoR" spatial extension of the statistical software "R". The paper by Vivanco et al. A better behavior of pollutant predictions should be related to an improvement of meteorological predictions in terms of parameterizations involved in the meteorological model and input data, such as land use information.
In particular, the research carried on is aimed at comparing a same set of analytical tools at different scales, observing a better simulation envelope when working at a more refined and detailed local scale, rather than on a coarser one, therefore observing that resolution plays a significant role in modeling, especially when trying to simulate local effects.
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design
Pollution issues have been faced from a different point of view also in the contribution by Di Martino et al.. More particularly this topic has been analyzed with a spatial Data Warehouse approach. On the other hand, they lack of geovisualization techniques to take advantage of great analysis capabilities of georeferenced data such as 3D visualization, cartographic displays personalization, etc.
Lapucci Google Earth. Some experiments on a simulated multidimensional dataset concerning pollution of Italian regions show the functionalities of the proposed system. Cellura et al. The system clearly highlights temperature differences between urban and extraurban area and average intensity of UHI of Palermo. The research is the starting point for a forecasting model with a wider time horizon in order to obtain the future evolution of the temperature with a relevant advance and to use this information to study the evolution of urban comfort conditions. The contribution of Kanevski et al. Authors focus on the development and consequent application of a methodology for automatic processing of environmental data for mapping and classification purposes.
The idea underneath the work presented here resides on the importance of the environmental automatic decision-oriented treatment of data, from exploratory data analysis to mapping and classification, for decision-oriented purposes. Such methods are also important, as they should be able both to model multi-scale variability in data and to detect hot-spots. More generally some data are said to be ambiguous if they can have at least two particular interpretation. Ambiguity leads to a discordance in data classification due to a different perception of the phenomenon.
Inaccuracy produces uncertainty in the case of low quality of data, due to a certain degree of error Murgante et al , Murgante and Las Casas These issues have been analyzed in the paper by Taramelli, which analyze uncertainty in landform boundary definition. More particularly semantic and geometric approaches to landform definition have been analyzed adopting Fuzzy Logic, which allows each pixel to have a degree of membership.
In particular, they analyze how geosimulation models are close to reality, testing quality and accuracy of results. Also, they highlight that in several cases constrained cellular automata model can lead to false conclusions. References Archibugi, F. Kluwer, Dordrecht Bereano, A. Edizioni 31, Trento Camagni, R. Edizioni 31, Trento Campagna, M. In: Burrough, P. Geographic objects with indeterminate boundaries. Beacon Press, Boston Danese, M. In: Murgante, B.
Geocomputation and Urban Planning. SCI, vol. Springer, Berlin Dee, et al. In: Scholl, M. SSD LNCS, vol. Springer, Heidelberg Fusco Girard, L. Springer, Berlin 14 B. Lapucci Haggett, P. A Global Synthesis. In: The European Information Society. In: Montello, D. COSIT Springer, Heidelberg Keeney, R. Wiley, New York Krauskopf, T. In: Ditton, R. Environmental Impact Analysis: Philosophy and Methods. Territorio 12, 7—21 Leopold, L.
Franco Angeli, Milano Lombardo, S. Chelsea Green, Vermont Munasinghe, M. In: Munasinghe, M. Defining and Mesuring Sustainability. Springer, Berlin Murgante, B. ICCSA Springer, Heidelberg Nijkamp, P. Earthscan, London Nijkamp, P. In: Coccossis, H. Planning for Our Cultural Heritage. Aldershot, Avebury Nijkamp, P. Aldershot, Avebury O.
Sinuaer Associates, Sunderland Pawlak, Z. Earthscan, London Pearce, D. Bollati Boringhieri, Torino Serageldin, I. Impact Assessment and Alternative Evaluation. In: Lombardi, P. Le misure del piano:temi e strumenti della valutazione dei nuovi piani, Franco Angeli, Milano Therivel, R. Earthscan, London Tinacci Mossello, M. Il Mulino, Bologna Vallega, A. Mursia, Milano von Bertalanffy, L. Foundation, Development. George Braziller Inc. Information Control 8, — Zamagni, S. In: Campidoglio, L. The Environment after Rio. Climate change has received much attention during the last decennium and especially various mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Particularly the coastal zone will feel the consequences of climate change and the associated effects like sea level rise, increased storminess and flooding. Thus there is an urgent need for local and regional spatial planners to include climate change in their planning efforts. Using modelling and simulation, we can increase our understanding of the future land-use system under influence of a changing climate and accordingly reduce uncertainty concerning decisions. The current paper describes how land-use simulations combined with climate change scenarios represented by the SRES narratives can facilitate the definition of adaptation strategies to counteract the consequences of potential climate changes.
These climatic changes are manifesting themselves in different ways. Global average temperature has already increased by 0. These suggest that over the next years, a rise of between 1. Particularly in the coastal zones the potential consequences of climate change are a cause of mounting concern.
Coastal areas are perceived as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because they are subject to changes both in the marine environment and in the terrestrial environment. They would be affected by sea level rise, and any changes in storm surges and wave heights, and they would also be affected by B. Hansen changes inland, including alterations in river flow regimes. Adapting to climate change is therefore an essential part of ensuring our communities to remain desirable places to live and work.
Measures to reduce emissions are only part of the climate change challenge. Even if we make significant reductions in emissions tomorrow, the lag in the climate system means that emissions we have already put into the atmosphere will continue to affect the climate for several decades to come. The impact on towns and cities and their inhabitants will be significant, and consequently adaptation strategies are needed. Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become frequently employed with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions.
The European nature and agricultural areas - particularly in the coastal zone - are under increasing pressure from urbanisation, and the global warming will further enhance this pressure. Accordingly spatial and environmental planners have urgent needs for scenario tools analysing the impact of possible land use changes. Several bodies have called for a more integrated management of the coastal zone as a fundamental prerequisite for sustainable development, and one of the most recent efforts is the EU Recommendation for a European Strategy for Integrated Coastal Zone Management European Commission, The general recommendations focus on improvement of the planning and decision-making processes to create betterintegrated and more sustainable solutions for the development of coastal areas.
This should be accomplished through for example involving all stakeholders and politicians from an early stage in the planning process, and by developing tools for assessing the consequences for various planning initiatives — here under setting up scenarios for finding the best balance between different interests Nakicenovic et al. Using modelling and simulation, we can reduce uncertainty and increase our understanding of the land-use system. Spatial planning is a future-oriented activity, strongly conditioned by the past and present, and the planners need to enhance their analytical problem solving and decision making capabilities.
The help of land-use models can facilitate scenario building and provide an important aid in the decision making process. The aim of the current project has been to develop urban land-use scenarios based on the narratives for the future societal development as described in SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Nakicenovic, N. The case area is the Region of Northern Jutland Urban Land-Use Projections supporting Adaptation Strategies 19 where particularly the low land around Limfjorden is most sensitive to the effects of climate change.
Built-up areas represent huge societal investments and accordingly a rather long life expectancy - for example years. Therefore, new builtup areas must be established considering what we call a years flood risk zone. The paper is divided into 5 sections. After the introduction a brief description of climate change scenarios and their effect on sea level rise and flooding follows. In part 3 we describe the land-use modelling framework and data applied. Part 4 presents the scenario approach applied and discusses the results of the simulations.
The paper ends with some conclusions and an outline for subsequent work. Emission scenarios are derived from population, economic and technology scenarios, which also shape vulnerability and therefore impacts of climate change. Emission scenarios are an important component of IPCC assessments. SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios is an international framework, which proposes a range of possible futures that integrate socio-economic and climate change driving forces. All four storylines and scenario families describe future worlds that are generally more affluent compared to the current situation.
They range from very rapid economic growth and technological change to high levels of environmental protection, from low to high global populations, and from high to low GHG emissions. What is perhaps even more important is that all the storylines describe dynamic changes and transitions in generally different directions. The storylines are summarized as follows Nakicenovic, N. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income.
Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines. Hansen economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resourceefficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.
While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. Based on the SRES scenarios and spatio-temporal global circulation models the international climate research community has developed several global climate change scenarios.
When you will estimate the effect of climate change at the local or regional level it is necessary to downscale the results of the global simulations by introducing various local circumstances. Predictions of global mean sea level rise can be made with more confidence than many other aspects of climate change science. Thus the sea level rise will increase the exposure of coastal populations to storm surges and storm waves.
The destructive power of such events will increase as a consequence of higher mean sea-level, and higher waves will be capable of reaching the original shoreline defined as the shoreline prior to the rise in sea level and areas further inland will become exposed to wave action. Rapid population growth, urban sprawl, growing demand for waterfront properties, and coastal resort development have additional harmful effects on protected coastal ecosystems.
The rate of coastal erosion is primarily a function of mean water level driven by relative sea-level rise , storm and wave forcing, sediment supply, and the form and response of the shore zone. Simulations based on the A2 and B2 emission scenarios are explored in the current research project.
The A2 scenario represents the more severe case corresponding to a dramatic increase in equivalent CO2 content from ppm in to ppm for the future climate in The less severe B2 scenario represents an increase of the equivalent CO2 content from ppm to ppm. Based on SRES the global average sea level is projected to rise from to between 0. According to the Danish Coastal Authority the Danish coasts will partly be affected by the rising sea level and partly by increased storminess, because of changed wind forces and wind directions. Generally this will result in increased erosion of the coasts and reduced safety against flooding of low-lying areas, of which many today are protected by sea walls.
In order to estimate the local sea level rise, you must take the post-glacial uplift into consideration. For the northern part of Jutland the global sea level rise will accordingly be reduced of 9 cm in year Danish Coastal Authority, Finally, an expected sea level rise due to storm surges must be added, and in the Limfjorden area this corresponds to up to cm in the current situation. Based on these figures and on a local digital elevation model we created impact maps to estimate the spatial extent of inundation and flooding in year for the most severe case see fig.
Elevation model with potential flooding in year 2. The prevention of catastrophes in general is a consideration of spatial planning and land management on the regional and local level. Therefore a more active role of planning and land management is necessary in order to adapt to future climate changes. Hansen However, spatial planning can only react to gradual changes like sea level rise with time horizons of decades, whereas spatial planning has rather limited effects on sudden events like extreme precipitation events or storm surges.
Generally there has always been a trend to locate new housing and associated services near seashores and riverbanks, and the attraction of the coast is even more pronounced for summer cottages and other buildings for leisure. Industries are similarly often located near harbours, with easy access to ship transport. This will inevitably enlarge the risk of flooding due to future sea level rise and storm surges and enhance the necessity and challenges for integrated coastal zone planning and management.
Accordingly it is imperative that we plan for and create communities that are robust in the face of climate change. Several EU Directives and other legislation consider the consequences of climate change. Besides, the Floods Directive - the European Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks European Commission, - is designed to support the Member States preventing and limiting floods and their damaging effects on human health, environment, infrastructure and property.
The Floods Directive came into force on 26 November, and Member States have 2 years during which to transpose the Directive into domestic law. Finally, on 29 June , the European Commission has adopted its first policy document - a Green Paper - on adapting to the impacts of climate change. In addition to the EU regulation most countries have set up their own adaptation strategy against climate change. They have to support a sustainable settlement development and a sustainable land use in consideration of the different public and private interests because of their important influences on environmental disasters.
There is a need for comprehensive vulnerability analysis to be undertaken for risk-prone areas. According to the Spinning-Top Decision-Evaluation framework the decisionmaking process can be divided into 5 steps: Decision preparation, Decision, Implementation, Evaluation, and Feedback Vedung, Particularly, the decision preparation phase can be assisted by land-use modelling. Simulations of future land-use provide planners and policy makers with descriptions and knowledge about possible spatial developments paths in the decision preparation process.
Particularly scenario studies are appropriate for assessing the consequences of alternative policies. Typically a baseline scenario with business as usual settings and several policy scenarios are produced to support decision preparation. The various SRES are constructed using very different postulated future world economic and social conditions without assigning any probabilities to any of them. For planners, this causes a difficult situation, as the projections of future climate made by GCMs using the SRES differ considerably between storylines by the end of the current century.
What amount of sea level rise should therefore be assumed for planning purposes? LUCIA is a traditional decision support system with factors and constraints, where the spatial dynamics are modelled through constrained cellular automata CA. Cellular automata is an obvious way to take spatial interaction into account and CA based models have been a very popular way of implementing dynamic landuse models.
Basically, cellular automata models determine the number of cells to be changed in the next time step endogenously based on the defined transition rules. However the pure CA approach is not appropriate for land-use simulation, and like other recent CA models Engelen et al. The driving forces for the amount of rural-urban change are basically population and economic growth. These drivers represent what we call macro-level drivers, and they are modelled externally to our model in various sector models, and basically define land demand from each active land-use type.
Statistics Denmark makes every year national level projections for population, and these national figures are afterwards distributed to the local level municipalities. Hansen At the micro level, we deal with constraints and factors often used in various land-use modelling efforts. Policy making at national and local level has a strong influence on land-use — particularly policies having a spatial manifestation like creation of conservation areas or designation of areas for subsidised development Verburg et al. However even more general legislation like the EU Common Agricultural Policy has a strong indirect influence on the spatial development in rural areas.
However, the current version of the model does only involve policies and legislation with an explicit spatial aim under the headline Zoning. LUCIA can incorporate 5 factors. The first factor involved in the model is the neighbouring effect, which represents the attractive or repulsive effects of various land-uses within the neighbourhood. It is generally well known that some land-use types, for example private service shopping , tend to cluster, whereas others — e. This is often referred to as the First Law of Geography Tobler, However cells, which are more remote, will have a smaller effect.
However, in the case of land-use modelling, the idea of neighbourhood may be much larger, since people and organisations are aware of their surroundings in a wider space. Therefore, it is desirable to define a neighbourhood large enough to capture the operational range of local processes.
Similarly to Engelen et al. Within the model we refer to this effect by the term proximity. Often the proximity effect has been estimated through the calibration phase, but recently we have developed a new method to quantify and analyse the neighbourhood effect in land-use modelling Hansen, Through access to urban land-use maps for several consecutive years, we can easily identify neighbouring land-uses for new urban cells.
The empirically derived neighbourhood functions confirm the expected positive attraction between existing residential areas and new cells with residential land-use. Similarly, our expectations regarding the repellent effect between existing industrial land-use and new residential cells are confirmed. The second factor is the suitability of each grid cell — i.
The third factor is accessibility — i. Some activities, like shopping, require better accessibility than recreational activities, for example. Often the latter activity even feels attracted to areas with low accessibility for example due to lower noise levels in Urban Land-Use Projections supporting Adaptation Strategies 25 such areas. These three headline factors — proximity, suitability and accessibility define the basic preconditions for cell ability to support a given land-use, and are, in some degree, fixed, although the accessibility can be changed by improving the infrastructure for example.
Currently, we have not used the possibility of using the last two optional factors. The overall modelling concept is illustrated in figure 3. But if needed, continuous constraints are supported. Additionally, we need to incorporate the spatial distribution of the socio-economic drivers. Hansen Initially w is set to 1. The number of cell values to be changed during the iterations is determined by the external drivers. Once the transition potential has been calculated for all active land-uses the cell transformation process can start.
Cell changes start with the cell having the highest transition potential for a certain land-use and this process proceeds downwards until the predetermined cell number changes for each active land-use category has been reached. A deeper discussion of the factors and constraints involved in the conceptual model follows below. The data set used in the current project is land-use data, soil type data, road network, prices of land, spatial planning regulations, population development, and a regional economic growth index.
Unfortunately, the level of thematic detail in CORINE land-cover does not satisfy our requirements for the built-up areas and protected nature. Therefore we introduced two auxiliary data sets. First — and most important — we used the Danish Building and Housing register, which contains detailed information about each building in Denmark, and this register has been in operation for about 30 years.
Currently we aggregate the 25 categories into five — residential, industry, service, summer cottages, and other recreation. Using the Danish national meter square grid we summarised the built-up area for each use category within each grid cell and assigned the use having the biggest area to the cell.
A further criterion is that at the number of urban cells within a 3 x 3 Moore neighbourhood must be greater than 1 - otherwise it is not considered builtup. Second, we used detailed nature type registrations to improve the spatial resolution of these sensitive areas.
Several nature types were aggregated into three categories: semi-nature, wetlands and lakes. Thus eleven new land-use grids for each of the years until were produced.
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Another category is passive land-use types, which are not driven by an external demand, but on the other hand enter into the calculations, because cells can disappear by being transformed into one of the active land-uses. The final category is the static land-uses, which cannot be transformed into one of the active land-uses, but will nevertheless affect the land-use simulation by attracting or repelling land-use transformation within their vicinity.
The macro level driver data The socio-economic drivers at the macro level here municipal level comprise factors such as: population change, industrial structure, economic development, technological change, policies and legislation. However, these conceptual drivers must be converted into demand for land for all the active land-use types, and this process is not straightforward at all. Generally we shall expect that a growing population will increase the demand for residential purposes, and this is usually correct. But what about static and even declining populations — will this situation free cells from residential to other purposes?
Not necessarily. This reflects the so-called thinning out effect, where each dwelling unit houses fewer and fewer people. Thus the demand for more space for residential purposes should not only consider population growth but also this thinning out effect. Similarly, the relationships between economic growth and the demand for land for industry and service facilities are not easy to resolve.
The economic growth will normally require bigger factories, but often production processes become more effective, or the factory moves from a central location often near the harbour to a new location at the urban fringe and near motorway junctions. This requires new space for industrial purposes, but at the same time frees their original central locations for other purposes — often residential. A parallel process can be observed for many service facilities. The economic growth in the current study is based on the regional economic growth index from Denmark Statistics.
It is available from onward. The index figures for — are estimated by linear extrapolation. Hansen 4 Land-Use Scenarios The world is full of uncertainty, and dynamic processes in the coastal zone — both man-made and natural - are interdependent and complex. Furthermore, uncertainty regarding climate change, its impacts and adaptive processes is so impressive that very little can be said yet with confidence about adaptive capacity and therefore also about vulnerability to long-term climate change.
It is possible, however, to make statements about the expected outcomes with a reasonable level of certainty. Scenario testing can bring the complexity of coastal interactions into focus and provide a better knowledge base for decisions. Scenarios can also help to incorporate a long-term view and to illustrate and explain issues to stakeholders and the general public during the planning process. We carried out three different scenarios for land-use development in Northern Jutland, and analysed the impact of future climate change and sea level rise on the expected future urban land.
Although it is never a trivial task to make detailed projections on future land-use, we can at least simulate the future urban development by a simple linear projection based on past trends. It is much more complicated to transform the SRES storylines for the future societal development into expectations about future urban development. Regarding A2 they conclude that there will be a growth in per capita land-use conversion Development along road corridors and growth associated with new sub-urban, peri-urban employment centres as important drivers. For B2 they expect a decrease in per capita land-use conversion and minimal minimum spontaneous growth as well as fewer new spreading centres.
Compact growth with infilling and edge growth will take place adjacent to existing urban spaces. The future demands for land needed for housing, industry and service use are based on existing official population projections at municipality level until The expected demand for new summer cottages is basically dependent on the economic growth, and — of-course - no official projections are available. Therefore we assume the future yearly growth to be equal to observed average demand for the period — The constraints represented by the Danish spatial planning regulations are crisp values 0 or 1.
Policy scenario A: This scenario corresponds to the A2 emission scenario. Generally we have very strong spatial planning regulations, but it is expected that spatial Urban Land-Use Projections supporting Adaptation Strategies 29 planning is weak under the A2 narrative. Therefore, we have changed the spatial planning constraints, so it is partly legal to create new settlements in areas, which are prohibited according to the base line scenario.
The 0 and 1 constraint values in the baseline scenario are replaced by 0. Finally, we have added a random raster values between 0 and 0. Policy scenario B: This scenario is rather similar to the baseline scenario, but it represents a more sustainable societal development as outlined by SRES scenario B2. As mentioned earlier we have already very strict spatial planning rules, which are in line with the B2 narrative. Calibration of factor weights was carried out using a ten-year period from to The LUCIA modelling framework is an integrated stand-alone application supporting several aspects of land-use modelling and developed in Delphi.
Below figure 4 and 5 you can see the differences between the two policy scenarios for Aalborg city, which is the regional capital of Northern Jutland. Policy scenario A figure 4 shows a much more scattered urban development compared to scenario B. We can observe as well a more branched urban structure as real new settlements in the countryside.
This is in accordance with what we can expect from the A2 narrative. Some obvious examples are enclosed in ellipses. On the contrary, figure 5 shows the future land-use according to policy scenario B, and we can observe a more nucleated city produced by filling in gabs and holes. Referring to narrative B2 this is clearly what we can expect. Thus we are able by using LUCIA to simulate the future urban development in ways, which have obvious similarities to our expectations in the two SRES emission scenarios. Nevertheless, it is only in scenarios for possible future development, and with changed parameters and input that the simulations will be different.
However, we can conclude that the simulations are in accordance with our expectations qualitatively, and in these way useful inputs in the decision-making concerning future land-use and spatial planning. Below, we will demonstrate how the developed scenarios can be used in a coastal planning context.
Land-use in according to Policy scenario A Fig. Land-use in according to Policy scenario B H. On figure 6 the 80 cm sea level rise is shown as cross-hatched polygons, whereas the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surge is illustrated by hatched polygons. Remark, that the hatched and cross-hatched areas represent areas that might be flooded in year ! Overall we can conclude that only minor patches of land along the fjord can expect permanent flooding due just to sea level rise, but with addition of storm surges much larger areas are in danger.
From the map on figure 1 you can see that the impact has its maximum in some low-lying wetlands areas, which can be severely damaged. The effect of sea level rise and storm surge around Aalborg city. The cross-hatched polygons represent sea level rise, and the hatched polygons represent the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surge.
But if you zoom in on the major city of Aalborg, you can clearly see that particularly the central part of the city is located in a flood-prone zone fig. The storm surge impact on the central administrative and shopping district will increase the vulnerability and threaten its function as capital for the Northern Jutland Region. Clearly, this area must be protected for example by dikes, when it is needed. However another potential threat can be seen just west of the city. Here 32 H. Hansen we can expect extensive urban development during the next 25 years- and this development has already started!
Nevertheless, it is an area vulnerable to frequent flooding at the end of this century. Therefore, spatial planners need to take action to prevent the potential risks, and in this adaptation process the described land-use modelling effort can be a very useful tool. Table 2. It is obvious that generally rather few new built-up areas in year will be threatened by permanent flooding through mere sea level rise. This is the case for both policy scenarios. Only summer cottages which are often located in low-lying areas near the coast are more vulnerable to flooding.
However, taken storm surges into consideration will enlarge the vulnerability substantially for all urban land-uses when we consider policy scenario A. Thus about one fifth of the new built-up areas are located in flood prone areas. Regarding policy scenario B we can see that especially residential buildings and summer cottages will be located within the risk zone.
Results like this are useful for spatial planners and coastal zone managers in the preparation phase for new land-use plans. The coastal zone will clearly feel the consequences of climate change and the associated effects like sea level rise, increased storminess and flooding. In order to mitigate the negative consequences of this development the European Union has defined a set of recommendations for integrated coastal zone management, and several pilot studies have emphasised the use of spatial models and scenarios to support the decision-making concerning a sustainable coastal zone.
Besides this, the European Commission has adopted a so-called Green Paper on adapting to the impacts of climate change. Land-use models are useful for unravel the complex collection of socio-economic and biophysical forces which determine the rate and spatial pattern of land-use change. Using modelling and simulation, we can increase our understanding of the Urban Land-Use Projections supporting Adaptation Strategies 33 future land-use system under influence of a changing climate and accordingly reduce uncertainty concerning decisions.
Minimising the impacts of sea-level rise and flooding from storm-surge events can be achieved through implementing adaptation strategies - including a wide spectrum of approaches, from policy and law to engineering and technology. The current paper has demonstrated how to integrate a cellular automata based land-use simulation model with climate change scenarios, and thus facilitate the identification of future vulnerable areas. Currently, we have transformed the A2 and B2 SRES narratives to quantifiable elements to be handled in a land-use simulation model.
This is our first step to integrate the climate change scenarios with land-use modelling within an operational tool. However, we are aware that the extent of future climate change is still uncertain, and not at least our translation of the SRES scenarios to changed conditions for urban development.
Nevertheless, governments at various levels must be aware of the potential effects of climate change, and consider the consequences in their planning efforts. The current research has been primarily theoretical and lacking any practical planning connection. Therefore, the next step will be to use the developed methods and tools in a practical coastal zone planning context in Northern Jutland. This will hopefully give us feedback with ideas for further developing our modelling framework.
Not at least it is our hope that we can use the developed methods in a public participation context. References Barredo, J. Copenhagen in Danish Engelen, G. EEA Technical report no. In: Westort, C. DEM Springer, Heidelberg 34 H. Hansen Hansen, H. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography, pp. Climate Change The scientific basis. County of Northern Jutland Nakicenovic, N. Journal of Environmental Management 72, — Tobler, W. Economic Geography 46, — Vedung, E. Transaction Books Verburg, P.
Journal 61, — a Verburg, P. A high performance heuristic solution method is proposed able to locate near to optimal sites composed by a given number of cells raster structure. These sites must be compact and maximize levels of the sites intrinsic multiple criteria suitability. To validate the heuristic approach, a comparison with a mathematical formulation is performed with afforestation data of regions within the Netherlands, Denmark, and Flanders. This reveals that the heuristic is considerably faster than the mathematical method and the objective values obtained with the two approaches are substantially similar.
A sensitivity analysis shows that the region's homogeneity plays an important role in the performance of the process identifying most favourable sites. Moreover, computation time follows a power model in the number of cells forming the site. This paper presents a mathematical formulation and a heuristic solution method for identifying compact and contiguous sites formed by a set of cells maximizing the intrinsic multiple criteria suitability of each site.
The notion of compactness is associated with firmly packed sites. In this paper we adhere to the earliest attempts to develop a compactness index based on perimeter to area ratios Maceachren, On the other hand, a B. Vanegas et al.
Therefore, compactness implies contiguity, but not the opposite. Contiguity and compactness requirements and intrinsic multiple criteria suitability of the cells are all involved in finding optimal sites. Although mathematical optimization methods have been used for about 30 years in areas like forest planning Williams and ReVelle, , the size of the problems that can be handled in a practical way remains limited.
Nevertheless, these methods can be very useful as part of an adaptative, learning process of problems at hand Hof and Bevers, Therefore, the proposed heuristic for site location is evaluated taking the mathematical formulation results as a reference. Even though the proposed mathematical formulation by itself does not ensure contiguity, it makes use of the benefit gained through the boundaries of contiguous pixels, tending to minimize the perimeter while the area is constant.
Master of Environmental Management (with specialisations) Articulated Set
A weight configuration giving the same importance to each criterion fulfills the contiguity and compactness requirements. This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews techniques applied in site location problems; Section 3 describes the data and approaches used in this study,; Section 4 analyzes the results and Section 5 summarizes the conclusions. However, NDL India takes no responsibility for, and will not be liable for, the portal being unavailable due to technical issues or otherwise. For any issue or feedback, please write to ndl-support iitkgp.
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